I’m reminded of Willie Nelson’s song Why are you picking on me?.
The New Jersey Devils and Ilya Kovalchuk must be feeling that way right about now.
After Kovalchuk signed a 17-year, $102 million deal with Devils, the NHL rejected the contract on the basis that the deal constituted a cap circumvention by artificially lowering the cap hit.
Kovalchuk will earn $6 million each of the next two seasons, $11.5 million for the following five seasons, $10.5 million in the 2017-18 season, $8.5 million for the 2018-19 season, $6.5 million in 2019-20, $3.5 million in 2020-21, $750,000 the following season and $550,000 for the final five years.
Arguably, there are a handful of contracts with similar terms. Henrik Zetterberg, Roberto Luongo and Marian Hossa have signed 12 year deals, and Franzen signed for 11 years. Both Hossa and Luongo will be 42 when their deals are up, while Franzen and Zetterberg will be 40. Kovalchuk will be 44 when his contract is expires.
So why has the NHL taken issue with this contract, but not others?
The answer: the NHL is drawing a line in the sand.
The Kovalchuk contract does have a unique combination of factors that may have irked the NHL. In the first 10 years of the contract, Kovalchuk takes homes $92.5 million dollars. At that point, he will be 37 years old. In the last 7 years of the contract, though, he is slated to make a combined $9.5 million, and $550,000 in each of the last 5 years. These are the throwaway years and it may be tough to argue otherwise. That together with the length of the contract - 5 years longer than the next contract in line - made the contract a problem.
You may remember that the NHL investigated the Hossa deal, but ultimately approved it. In retrospect, it may have been sending a message to NHL clubs that they needed to tread carefully with these contracts and not go too far. The Kovalchuk contract, in the NHL’s estimation, went too far.
So what’s next? After the NHL completed its investigation as prescribed by the CBA, it went to the Devils and informed them that the contract was rejected. The Devils are now trying to decide what they will do. They can accept the NHL’s decision and try and restructure the deal. However, if they elect to contest the NHL’s ruling, then the parties go to arbitration.
If the Devils decide to contest the NHL’s ruling, who will win?
This is always a tough question to answer as much depends on the evidence filed. If I had to handicap this case, I would say while it’s a close call, in my opinion the NHL stands on the stronger side of the case. However, I would never bet against Lou Lamoriello.
Remember the CBA provides that teams and players cannot do anything that is intended to or has the effect of defeating or circumventing the provisions of the CBA. Intention is tough to show, so the NHL in all likelihood would focus on the net effect of the contract.
Here are some possible arguments for the NHL:
One Reason and One Reason Only: The deal constitutes a cap circumvention as it artificially lowers the yearly cap hit with, at the very least, 6 throwaway years. The only reason the contract was designed in this way was to circumvent the CBA; there is no other reason.
Unique Contract: While there have been some long contracts signed, none are of this magnitude at 17 years and none are structured with so many inconsequential years at the end for so little money.
Career Arc: Looking at the typical arc of a player’s career (particularly a forward/winger), it is unlikely that Kovalchuk would play into his 40s. While, there are some players that have played into their 40s (Marc Recchi at 42 and Chris Chelios at 48), empirically that is not the norm.
Here are some possible arguments for the Devils:
No Max Years In CBA: While the NHL may not like the terms of the contract, the CBA simply does not preclude these types of contracts. If the NHL wanted to rule out these types of contracts, they should have done what the NBA did and expressly address it in the CBA.
Past Practice: The NHL has approved similar contracts. When Kovalchuk’s is up, he will be 44. That is not significantly older than the age of other players that have signed similar deals. Hossa and Luongo will be 42, while Franzen and Zetterberg will be 40. So this contract is very much in keeping with previous contracts.
The Hot Yoga Defence: With advances in training and nutrition, players are playing longer than ever. At the age of 42 and with the help of hot yoga, Marc Recchi has agreed to terms with the Bruins to play in his 22nd NHL season. He will turn 43 next season and continues to be a productive NHL winger, recording 43 points in 81 games last season. Enjoying the benefits of a rigorous fitness regime and good nutrition, Chris Chelios at the age of 48 played this past season. If he stays in shape and eats well, there is not reason to believe that Kovalchuk can play into his 40s. Simply put, the NHL doesn't have a crystal ball and is merely speculating.
My initial reaction is that I would be surprised to see Lamoriello and the Devils go to arbitration as they would have a tough case. You can say past practice should be an endorsement of this contract; however, that alone is likely insufficient to sustain the position that the contract should be deemed valid. The other contracts are borderline and this one looks worse.
If I’m a betting man, I would put my money on the NHL if this case goes to arbitration. If I had some extra chips to put down, I would bet that the Devils don't go the route of arbitration.
I see a new deal for Kovalchuk somewhere in the neighbourhood of 14 years, and probably with the Devils.